Prophet Secretary for Combinatorial Auctions and Matroids

The secretary and the prophet inequality problems are central to the field of Stopping Theory. Recently, there has been a lot of work in generalizing these models to multiple items because of their applications in mechanism design. The most important of these generalizations are to matroids and to combinatorial auctions (extends bipartite matching). Kleinberg-Weinberg \cite{KW-STOC12} and Feldman et al. \cite{feldman2015combinatorial} show that for adversarial arrival order of random variables the optimal prophet inequalities give a $1/2$-approximation. For many settings, however, it's conceivable that the arrival order is chosen uniformly at random, akin to the secretary problem. For such a random arrival model, we improve upon the $1/2$-approximation and obtain $(1-1/e)$-approximation prophet inequalities for both matroids and combinatorial auctions. This also gives improvements to the results of Yan \cite{yan2011mechanism} and Esfandiari et al. \cite{esfandiari2015prophet} who worked in the special cases where we can fully control the arrival order or when there is only a single item. Our techniques are threshold based. We convert our discrete problem into a continuous setting and then give a generic template on how to dynamically adjust these thresholds to lower bound the expected total welfare.Comment: Preliminary version appeared in SODA 2018. This version improves the writeup on Fixed-Threshold algorithm

Online Decision Making via Prophet Setting

In the study of online problems, it is often assumed that there exists an adversary who acts against the algorithm and generates the most challenging input for it. This worst-case assumption in addition to the complete uncertainty about future events in the traditional online setting sometimes leads to worst-case scenarios with super-constant approximation impossibilities. In this dissertation, we go beyond this worst-case analysis of problems by taking advantage of stochastic modeling. Inspired by the prophet inequality problem, we introduce the prophet setting for online problems in which the probability distributions of the future inputs are available. This modeling not only considers the availability of statistical data in the design of mechanisms but also results in significantly more efficient algorithms. To illustrate the improvements achieved by this setting, we study online problems within the contexts of auctions and networks. We begin our study with analyzing a fundamental online problem in optimal stopping theory, namely prophet inequality, in the special cases of iid and large markets, and general cases of matroids and combinatorial auctions and discuss its applications in mechanism design. The stochastic model introduced by this problem has received a lot of attention recently in modeling other real-life scenarios, such as online advertisement, because of the growing ability to fit distributions for user demands. We apply this model to network design problems with a wide range of applications from social networks to power grids and communication networks. In this dissertation, we give efficient algorithms for fundamental network design problems in the prophet setting and present a general framework that demonstrates how to develop algorithms for other problems in this setting

Stochastic k-Server: How Should Uber Work?

In this paper we study a stochastic variant of the celebrated $k$-server problem. In the k-server problem, we are required to minimize the total movement of k servers that are serving an online sequence of $t$ requests in a metric. In the stochastic setting we are given t independent distributions in advance, and at every time step i a request is drawn from P_i. Designing the optimal online algorithm in such setting is NP-hard, therefore the emphasis of our work is on designing an approximately optimal online algorithm. We first show a structural characterization for a certain class of non-adaptive online algorithms. We prove that in general metrics, the best of such algorithms has a cost of no worse than three times that of the optimal online algorithm. Next, we present an integer program that finds the optimal algorithm of this class for any arbitrary metric. Finally by rounding the solution of the linear relaxation of this program, we present an online algorithm for the stochastic k-server problem with an approximation factor of $3$ in the line and circle metrics and factor of O(log n) in general metrics. In this way, we achieve an approximation factor that is independent of k, the number of servers. Moreover, we define the Uber problem, motivated by extraordinary growth of online network transportation services. In the Uber problem, each demand consists of two points -a source and a destination- in the metric. Serving a demand is to move a server to its source and then to its destination. The objective is again minimizing the total movement of the k given servers. It is not hard to show that given an alpha-approximation algorithm for the k-server problem, we can obtain a max{3,alpha}-approximation algorithm for the Uber problem. Motivated by the fact that demands are usually highly correlated with the time (e.g. what day of the week or what time of the day the demand is arrived), we study the stochastic Uber problem. Using our results for stochastic k-server we can obtain a 3-approximation algorithm for the stochastic Uber problem in line and circle metrics, and a O(log n)-approximation algorithm for a general metric of size n. Furthermore, we extend our results to the correlated setting where the probability of a request arriving at a certain point depends not only on the time step but also on the previously arrived requests

Greedy Algorithms for Online Survivable Network Design

In an instance of the network design problem, we are given a graph G=(V,E), an edge-cost function c:E -> R^{>= 0}, and a connectivity criterion. The goal is to find a minimum-cost subgraph H of G that meets the connectivity requirements. An important family of this class is the survivable network design problem (SNDP): given non-negative integers r_{u v} for each pair u,v in V, the solution subgraph H should contain r_{u v} edge-disjoint paths for each pair u and v. While this problem is known to admit good approximation algorithms in the offline case, the problem is much harder in the online setting. Gupta, Krishnaswamy, and Ravi [Gupta et al., 2012] (STOC\u2709) are the first to consider the online survivable network design problem. They demonstrate an algorithm with competitive ratio of O(k log^3 n), where k=max_{u,v} r_{u v}. Note that the competitive ratio of the algorithm by Gupta et al. grows linearly in k. Since then, an important open problem in the online community [Naor et al., 2011; Gupta et al., 2012] is whether the linear dependence on k can be reduced to a logarithmic dependency. Consider an online greedy algorithm that connects every demand by adding a minimum cost set of edges to H. Surprisingly, we show that this greedy algorithm significantly improves the competitive ratio when a congestion of 2 is allowed on the edges or when the model is stochastic. While our algorithm is fairly simple, our analysis requires a deep understanding of k-connected graphs. In particular, we prove that the greedy algorithm is O(log^2 n log k)-competitive if one satisfies every demand between u and v by r_{uv}/2 edge-disjoint paths. The spirit of our result is similar to the work of Chuzhoy and Li [Chuzhoy and Li, 2012] (FOCS\u2712), in which the authors give a polylogarithmic approximation algorithm for edge-disjoint paths with congestion 2. Moreover, we study the greedy algorithm in the online stochastic setting. We consider the i.i.d. model, where each online demand is drawn from a single probability distribution, the unknown i.i.d. model, where every demand is drawn from a single but unknown probability distribution, and the prophet model in which online demands are drawn from (possibly) different probability distributions. Through a different analysis, we prove that a similar greedy algorithm is constant competitive for the i.i.d. and the prophet models. Also, the greedy algorithm is O(log n)-competitive for the unknown i.i.d. model, which is almost tight due to the lower bound of [Garg et al., 2008] for single connectivity

Online Weighted Degree-Bounded Steiner Networks via Novel Online Mixed Packing/Covering

We design the first online algorithm with poly-logarithmic competitive ratio for the edge-weighted degree-bounded Steiner forest (EW-DB-SF) problem and its generalized variant. We obtain our result by demonstrating a new generic approach for solving mixed packing/covering integer programs in the online paradigm. In EW-DB-SF, we are given an edge-weighted graph with a degree bound for every vertex. Given a root vertex in advance, we receive a sequence of terminal vertices in an online manner. Upon the arrival of a terminal, we need to augment our solution subgraph to connect the new terminal to the root. The goal is to minimize the total weight of the solution while respecting the degree bounds on the vertices. In the offline setting, edge-weighted degree-bounded Steiner tree (EW-DB-ST) and its many variations have been extensively studied since early eighties. Unfortunately, the recent advancements in the online network design problems are inherently difficult to adapt for degree-bounded problems. In particular, it is not known whether the fractional solution obtained by standard primal-dual techniques for mixed packing/covering LPs can be rounded online. In contrast, in this paper we obtain our result by using structural properties of the optimal solution, and reducing the EW-DB-SF problem to an exponential-size mixed packing/covering integer program in which every variable appears only once in covering constraints. We then design a generic integral algorithm for solving this restricted family of IPs. As mentioned above, we demonstrate a new technique for solving mixed packing/covering integer programs. Define the covering frequency k of a program as the maximum number of covering constraints in which a variable can participate. Let m denote the number of packing constraints. We design an online deterministic integral algorithm with competitive ratio of O(k*log(m)) for the mixed packing/covering integer programs. We prove the tightness of our result by providing a matching lower bound for any randomized algorithm. We note that our solution solely depends on m and k. Indeed, there can be exponentially many variables. Furthermore, our algorithm directly provides an integral solution, even if the integrality gap of the program is unbounded. We believe this technique can be used as an interesting alternative for the standard primal-dual techniques in solving online problems

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe